January-July 2010 is hottest, NASA reports 最熱的一月到七月
Will calendar year 2010 be the warmest in the period of instrumental data? Figure 3 shows that through the first seven months 2010 is warmer than prior warm years. The difference of +0.08°C compared with 2005, the prior warmest year, is large enough that 2010 is likely, but not certain, to be the warmest year in the GISS record. However, because of the cooling effect of La Niña in the remainder of the year, there is a strong possibility that the 2005 and 2010 global temperatures will be sufficiently close that they will be practically indistinguishable.
Climate anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2010, including the heat in Eastern Europe and unusually heavy rainfall and floods in several regions, have received much attention. Are these climate anomalies an example of what we can expect global warming to look like? Maps of temperature anomalies, such as Figure 1, are useful for helping people understand the role of global warming in extreme events.
The location of extreme events in any particular month depends on specific weather patterns, which are unpredictable except on short time scales. The weather patterns next summer will be different than this year. It could be a cooler than average summer in Moscow in 2011.
But note in Figure 1, and similar maps for other months, that the area warmer than climatology already (with global warming of 0.55°C relative to 1951-1980) is noticeably larger than the area cooler than climatology. Also the magnitude of warm anomalies now usually exceeds the magnitude of cool anomalies.
The paper describing the GISS analysis of global temperature has been revised in response to reviewer suggestions and has been accepted for publication in Reviews of Geophysics. The biggest change in the paper is inclusion of an additional analysis is which global temperature change is based only on stations located in "pitch dark" regions, i.e., regions with satellite-observed brightness below the satellite's detection limit (1 μW/m2/sr/μm). Our standard analysis uses stations with satellite-observed brightness below 32 μW/m2/sr/μm. This more strict brightness limitation has no significant effect on analyzed global temperature change, providing additional confirmation that any urban effect on the GISS analysis of global temperature change is small.
The summary section of the revised paper is available here and the entire paper here.
A copy of this webpage text is also available as a PDF document.
Note: This page was first posted on 2010-08-11 and was updated on 2010-08-12 to reflect that the analysis paper has been accepted for publication.
Reference: Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo, 2010: Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys., accepted. (PDF)
Contacts: Please address media inquiries regarding the GISS surface temperature analysis to Ms. Leslie McCarthy by e-mail at Leslie.M.McCarthy@nasa.gov or by phone at 212-678-5507.
Scientific inquiries about the analysis may be directed to Dr. James E. Hansen.
Arctic ice: Less than meets the eye
25 August 2010 by Chris Mooney
The ice may not retreat as much as feared this year, but what remains may be more rotten than robust
|Above: Satellite image from Aug. 5, 2010, shows the huge ice island calved from Greenland's Petermann Glacier. Source: Prof. Andreas Muenchow, University of Delaware.|
去年夏天，綠色和平組織派出「北極曙光號」考察船，連同科學家調 查格陵蘭彼德曼冰川變化情形，當時就已發現冰川滿佈裂縫，整座冰川嘎吱作響，有倒塌危機，科學家原先預估，影響範圍將會有一個香港島的大小，如今，從彼德 曼冰川分裂出來的冰塊，比原先估計的面積還要大上許多！
「這不是漸進式， 而是跳躍式，歷來所有專家預測的時間都太慢！」曹正憂心的指出，如果格陵蘭冰川溶解，會滲到冰與地表之間，這層水膜將加速冰川脆弱性，更會因滑動而加速進 程，如果完全溶解，海平面將上升6公尺，而南極冰棚完全溶解的話，則海平面會上升60公尺！
極地冰山的融解，大氣中的水氣快速增加，會加劇 暴雨、颶風、乾旱的嚴重性。曹正指出，對於氣候變遷帶來極端的天氣，如八八水災的暴雨情形，政府一方面要做好防範更惡劣天候的措施，一方面要節能減碳，為 減少溫室效應貢獻心力，發展更乾淨的替代能源，如台灣每度電要排放0.638公斤的碳，就比美國高出1到2倍，而全世界計畫與建造的核電廠也大幅增加，已 是不可避免的趨勢。
Global warming: World's highest island glacier vanishing
The glacier on Puncak Jaya in Papua, Indonesia, the Earth's highest island, is quickly melting away, giving geologists little time to extract ice core samples.
By Brett Israel, OurAmazingPlanet Staff Writer / August 16, 2010
Glaciologists spent two grueling weeks drilling for the ice cores atop Puncak Jaya in Papua, Indonesia. Puncak Jaya is the Earth's highest island peak and the tallest mountain between the Andes and the Himalayas at 16,000 feet (4,884 meters).
Reach team member Dwi Susanto of Columbia University said the excursion was "a lifetime achievement for me, as I usually work at sea level."
The mission may have been a once-in-a-lifetime mission for another reason: The Puncak Jaya glacier is disappearing — fast. The glaciologists who drilled through the cap, led by Lonnie Thompson of Ohio State University, said the ice field could vanish within the next few years. [See images of the scientists at work.]
These invaluable ice cores are like climate time capsules buried thousands of years ago that show successive layers of ice and snow that have been laid down on glaciers. They enclose tiny bubbles that contain samples of the atmosphere trapped when each layer of ice first formed. By unlocking their secrets, scientists will reveal how the climate has changed over thousands of years.
The researchers successfully removed three ice cores from two peaks at the Northwall Firn glacier. At the Puncak Sumantri peak, the research team drilled to the bedrock and pulled out two cores totaling nearly 100 feet (30 meters) long each. At the Puncak Soekarno peak, the team extracted an ice core that was 85 feet (26 meters) long.
The drilling was accomplished despite nightmarish weather. Temperatures around 6 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 14 degrees Celsius) were the norm. Torrential winds and pouring rains toppled a tent at the base Saddle camp. These same weather conditions are also pushing the glacier into a fast retreat.
Yet, the rain is also helpful for researchers. They collected rain samples to compare to data from 11 weather stations in the area, which will help the researchers translate the climate history that's locked inside the ice cores. Measuring the stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen in the ice will help the researchers calculate past temperatures. Other chemicals preserved in the ice reveal changes in the atmosphere such as those that occurred during major volcanic eruptions. Dust in the ice may signal a drought while some certain compounds may reflect a fire, such as from forest burning.
The glaciologists are hopeful that the new data will provide a long-term record of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon that controls how the climate changes in the tropics (and also influences weather patterns elsewhere, including the United States).
An analysis of the first of the cores is expected by December, the researchers said.
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• Tropical glaciers slowly vanish
• Water supply of millions threatened by melting of Kashmir's glaciers
• Greenland's Helheim glacier: a melting mystery
據《新華網》報導，中國科學院院士、青藏高原研究所所長姚檀棟指出，1960年代開始，青藏高原的冰川退縮比較強烈，到了1980年代，冰川退縮 又加劇，其中，中部冰川退縮較少，邊緣地區退縮較嚴重。他說，受到氣候暖化影響，青藏高原冰川過去30年退縮的幅度，已經等於過去200年退縮幅度，冰川 消融的速度非常驚人。
綠色和平組織曾多次到青藏高原拍攝冰川消融的真實狀況，也發現過去30年來，青藏高原的平均溫度已攀升1℃，近10年來，西藏地區的溫度更是以每 年0.06℃遞增。綠色和平預測，青藏高原的冰川將在本世紀末消失殆盡，這將對中國的水資源問題造成很大的影響，數以百萬的人們未來將面臨著洪水、乾旱的 威脅。
綠色和平組織指出，全球暖化不僅造成青藏高原的冰川融化，中國其他地區的冰川(包括黃河源頭)都在迅速融化，習慣「靠天吃飯」的當地居民，也不得 不在日益惡劣的環境中，被迫改變原有的生活方式，甚至搬遷到別處居住。該組織並憂心地說，以目前冰川融化的速度，或許不必等到本世紀末，往後短短的數十年 間，水源之地就已沒有冰川可以儲水。