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January-July 2010 is hottest, NASA reports 最熱的一月到七月

The 12-month running mean of global temperature (Figure 2) achieved a record high level during the past few months. Because the current La Niña will continue at least several months, and likely strengthen somewhat, the 12-month running mean temperature is expected to decline during the second half of 2010.

Will calendar year 2010 be the warmest in the period of instrumental data? Figure 3 shows that through the first seven months 2010 is warmer than prior warm years. The difference of +0.08°C compared with 2005, the prior warmest year, is large enough that 2010 is likely, but not certain, to be the warmest year in the GISS record. However, because of the cooling effect of La Niña in the remainder of the year, there is a strong possibility that the 2005 and 2010 global temperatures will be sufficiently close that they will be practically indistinguishable.

Climate anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2010, including the heat in Eastern Europe and unusually heavy rainfall and floods in several regions, have received much attention. Are these climate anomalies an example of what we can expect global warming to look like? Maps of temperature anomalies, such as Figure 1, are useful for helping people understand the role of global warming in extreme events.

The location of extreme events in any particular month depends on specific weather patterns, which are unpredictable except on short time scales. The weather patterns next summer will be different than this year. It could be a cooler than average summer in Moscow in 2011.

But note in Figure 1, and similar maps for other months, that the area warmer than climatology already (with global warming of 0.55°C relative to 1951-1980) is noticeably larger than the area cooler than climatology. Also the magnitude of warm anomalies now usually exceeds the magnitude of cool anomalies.

What we can say is that global warming has an effect on the probability and intensity of extreme events. This is true for precipitation as well as temperature, because the amount of water vapor that the air carries is a strong function of temperature. So the frequency of extremely heavy rain and floods increases as global warming increases. But at times and places of drought, global warming can increase the extremity of temperature and associated events such as forest fires.

The paper describing the GISS analysis of global temperature has been revised in response to reviewer suggestions and has been accepted for publication in Reviews of Geophysics. The biggest change in the paper is inclusion of an additional analysis is which global temperature change is based only on stations located in "pitch dark" regions, i.e., regions with satellite-observed brightness below the satellite's detection limit (1 μW/m2/sr/μm). Our standard analysis uses stations with satellite-observed brightness below 32 μW/m2/sr/μm. This more strict brightness limitation has no significant effect on analyzed global temperature change, providing additional confirmation that any urban effect on the GISS analysis of global temperature change is small.

The summary section of the revised paper is available here and the entire paper here.
A copy of this webpage text is also available as a
PDF document.
Note: This page was first posted on 2010-08-11 and was updated on 2010-08-12 to reflect that the analysis paper has been accepted for publication.
Reference: Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo, 2010:
Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys., accepted. (PDF)
Contacts: Please address media inquiries regarding the GISS surface temperature analysis to Ms. Leslie McCarthy by e-mail at
Leslie.M.McCarthy@nasa.gov or by phone at 212-678-5507.
Scientific inquiries about the analysis may be directed to
Dr. James E. Hansen.

Arctic ice: Less than meets the eye
25 August 2010 by Chris Mooney

The ice may not retreat as much as feared this year, but what remains may be more rotten than robust

北極冰川大崩裂 20年後無冰夏天
2010/08/11 台灣醒報記者蕭介雲

Above: Satellite image from Aug. 5, 2010, shows the huge ice island calved from Greenland's Petermann Glacier. Source: Prof. Andreas Muenchow, University of Delaware.
根據綠色和平組織公佈最新資訊指出,極地格陵蘭的彼德曼冰川,破碎分裂面積已達 100平方公里,科學家預計,最快到2030年,北極就會度過第一個「無冰夏天」。中華民國永續發展協會常務理事曹正受訪時強調,融冰的速度將來還會更 快!

綠色和平組織強烈呼籲,氣候變遷是一個進行式,並且有加劇的跡象,大自然已發出強烈警號,為地球及下一代著想,我們必須採取實質行動,不要再依 賴化石燃料,並且進一步減少二氧化碳的排放,才能積極和緩氣候變遷強度。

去年夏天,綠色和平組織派出「北極曙光號」考察船,連同科學家調 查格陵蘭彼德曼冰川變化情形,當時就已發現冰川滿佈裂縫,整座冰川嘎吱作響,有倒塌危機,科學家原先預估,影響範圍將會有一個香港島的大小,如今,從彼德 曼冰川分裂出來的冰塊,比原先估計的面積還要大上許多!

根據當時觀察,格陵蘭有一塊香港面積三倍大的巨型冰山,從格陵蘭的彼德曼冰川分裂出 來。冰川流失是一個重要警訊,內陸冰川因為受到溫暖洋流影響而融化,造成惡性循環,這代表格陵蘭的冰川融化速度正在加快。

「這不是漸進式, 而是跳躍式,歷來所有專家預測的時間都太慢!」曹正憂心的指出,如果格陵蘭冰川溶解,會滲到冰與地表之間,這層水膜將加速冰川脆弱性,更會因滑動而加速進 程,如果完全溶解,海平面將上升6公尺,而南極冰棚完全溶解的話,則海平面會上升60公尺!

極地冰山的融解,大氣中的水氣快速增加,會加劇 暴雨、颶風、乾旱的嚴重性。曹正指出,對於氣候變遷帶來極端的天氣,如八八水災的暴雨情形,政府一方面要做好防範更惡劣天候的措施,一方面要節能減碳,為 減少溫室效應貢獻心力,發展更乾淨的替代能源,如台灣每度電要排放0.638公斤的碳,就比美國高出1到2倍,而全世界計畫與建造的核電廠也大幅增加,已 是不可避免的趨勢。

事實上,在一般生活上,就可以善盡減少碳排放的努力,綠色和平組織呼籲,大家可以多加利用大眾交通工具,使用節能電器用 品,並且減少過度包裝,協助保護森林。

Global warming: World's highest island glacier vanishing
The glacier on Puncak Jaya in Papua, Indonesia, the Earth's highest island, is quickly melting away, giving geologists little time to extract ice core samples.
By Brett Israel, OurAmazingPlanet Staff Writer / August 16, 2010

An aerial view of glaciers near the summit of the 16,000-foot Puncak Jaya mountain in the Indonesian part of New Guinea island is seen in this March 2010 handout photo. Scientists in a team led by alpine glaciologist Lonnie Thompson of Ohio State University have begun drilling ice cores at a shrinking tropical glacier in Indonesia to collect data on climate change, and hope their findings could lead to better predictions about crucial monsoon rains.

Jez O'Hare/Freeport-McMoRan/Reuters/File

Ice cores extracted in June from one of the last tropical glaciers in the Pacific recently arrived in the United States, where researchers will spend the coming months scrutinizing their every detail.

Glaciologists spent two grueling weeks drilling for the ice cores atop Puncak Jaya in Papua, Indonesia. Puncak Jaya is the Earth's highest island peak and the tallest mountain between the Andes and the Himalayas at 16,000 feet (4,884 meters).

Reach team member Dwi Susanto of Columbia University said the excursion was "a lifetime achievement for me, as I usually work at sea level."

The mission may have been a once-in-a-lifetime mission for another reason: The Puncak Jaya glacier is disappearing — fast. The glaciologists who drilled through the cap, led by Lonnie Thompson of Ohio State University, said the ice field could vanish within the next few years. [See images of the scientists at work.]

These invaluable ice cores are like climate time capsules buried thousands of years ago that show successive layers of ice and snow that have been laid down on glaciers. They enclose tiny bubbles that contain samples of the atmosphere trapped when each layer of ice first formed. By unlocking their secrets, scientists will reveal how the climate has changed over thousands of years.

The researchers successfully removed three ice cores from two peaks at the Northwall Firn glacier. At the Puncak Sumantri peak, the research team drilled to the bedrock and pulled out two cores totaling nearly 100 feet (30 meters) long each. At the Puncak Soekarno peak, the team extracted an ice core that was 85 feet (26 meters) long.

The drilling was accomplished despite nightmarish weather. Temperatures around 6 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 14 degrees Celsius) were the norm. Torrential winds and pouring rains toppled a tent at the base Saddle camp. These same weather conditions are also pushing the glacier into a fast retreat.

Yet, the rain is also helpful for researchers. They collected rain samples to compare to data from 11 weather stations in the area, which will help the researchers translate the climate history that's locked inside the ice cores. Measuring the stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen in the ice will help the researchers calculate past temperatures. Other chemicals preserved in the ice reveal changes in the atmosphere such as those that occurred during major volcanic eruptions. Dust in the ice may signal a drought while some certain compounds may reflect a fire, such as from forest burning.

The glaciologists are hopeful that the new data will provide a long-term record of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon that controls how the climate changes in the tropics (and also influences weather patterns elsewhere, including the United States).

An analysis of the first of the cores is expected by December, the researchers said.
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青藏高原冰川退縮加劇 本世紀末恐消失
2010/08/09 大陸新聞中心

青藏高原冰川覆蓋率佔全中國冰川面積的80%,也因為是中國以及亞洲多條江河的源頭,因此素有「亞洲水塔」之稱。然而,受到暖化影響,青藏高原的冰川正在 加速消融,甚至有專家指出,過去30年來青藏高原冰川退縮幅度,等於以前200年的退縮幅度。

據《新華網》報導,中國科學院院士、青藏高原研究所所長姚檀棟指出,1960年代開始,青藏高原的冰川退縮比較強烈,到了1980年代,冰川退縮 又加劇,其中,中部冰川退縮較少,邊緣地區退縮較嚴重。他說,受到氣候暖化影響,青藏高原冰川過去30年退縮的幅度,已經等於過去200年退縮幅度,冰川 消融的速度非常驚人。
他指出,青藏高原冰川退縮強烈將增大冰湖潰決危險,這些受影響的冰湖主要集中在藏東南地區,如果潰決,將對周圍地區造成嚴重災害;目前中科院的科 學家正在對受影響的冰湖進行研究,並對存在潛在危害的湖泊進行重點監測。

據姚檀棟介紹,青藏高原冰川是地球第三大固體水庫,也是「亞洲水塔」的主體,提供亞洲13條河流的水源。因此,冰川的消融將直接影響淡水資源的供 應,造成河流季節性洪水,以及總體徑流量減少;屆時,中國、印度等生活在七大河流域內的13億人口,將會面臨水資源不穩定,甚至無水可用的危險。

綠色和平組織曾多次到青藏高原拍攝冰川消融的真實狀況,也發現過去30年來,青藏高原的平均溫度已攀升1℃,近10年來,西藏地區的溫度更是以每 年0.06℃遞增。綠色和平預測,青藏高原的冰川將在本世紀末消失殆盡,這將對中國的水資源問題造成很大的影響,數以百萬的人們未來將面臨著洪水、乾旱的 威脅。

綠色和平組織指出,全球暖化不僅造成青藏高原的冰川融化,中國其他地區的冰川(包括黃河源頭)都在迅速融化,習慣「靠天吃飯」的當地居民,也不得 不在日益惡劣的環境中,被迫改變原有的生活方式,甚至搬遷到別處居住。該組織並憂心地說,以目前冰川融化的速度,或許不必等到本世紀末,往後短短的數十年 間,水源之地就已沒有冰川可以儲水。